- 注释版
- 纯净版
导读
本周，英国内政部发布了关于人口离境的数据，结果令人意外。非欧盟学生移民多年来一直是移民政策的焦点，政策自2010年开始更加严厉。而欧盟学员由于无需签证即可来英，因此数据方面谬误难料。种种原因，使得时至今日，有多少国际学生在留英访学之后回归祖国难以确知，现有证据更是相互矛盾。人口统计局显示学成返回者寥寥，而内政部则认为大部分学生其实是毕业就离开英国了的。本周的处境普查支持了内政部的观点。大部分签证学员是学成归国的。由此陡生他问：人口统计局的数字还有何意义，以及未来当如何改进。此外，毕竟不是所有学生都在签证到期之后永远离开了英国。15-16年的数据显示，当中有21%的学生在处境之后的次年由通过短期或长期签证重返英国。
实际情况是，不可靠的统计局方面的数据是基于对出入境人士的来去目的进行询问。其不可信的原因大致有二：离境时人们通常不会详细描述他们当初来英国的目的是什么。其次，离境时他们也不确知自己接下来会作何举动。
既如此，如果我们素来高估了英国留学生人数，是否意味着所有的移民数据皆不可信？统计局对此回复：倒也未必。原因竟然是：如果我们对留学生人数统计有误，那我们对其他人群的统计想必也有舛误。如此一来，是错上加错还是相互抵消，尚不可知。只不过，这件事让民众对于官方的数据再无信心。
最后，我们是否该从今而后只相信内政部的出境数据呢？答案也是否定的。因为你并不清楚离境者将会离境多久。如果是离境一年之内即返回国，则被是为短暂离境，而离境期逾一年之久则被视为移民国外。故此，这个数据来源依然不能让我们确认目前的出入英国的留学生人数。
第一步：解决高频单词
Home Office
英国内政部
national ['næʃnəl]
n. 异国国民
ONS
n. office for national statistics 国家人口统计局
comply with
vt. 服从，遵守
term [tɜːm]
n. 条款
fall off
vt. 离开……
recount [rɪ'kaʊnt]
vt. 详述；列举
robust [rəʊ'bʌst]
adj. 强健的，稳固的
expire [ɪk'spaɪə(r)]
vi. 过期
第二步：精读重点段落
（Tips: 双击文中单词可以查释义并加入你的生词本哦）
第四段：
Non-EU nationals are thought to make up about 70% of student immigration to the UK and they’re subject to immigration controls. Students from EU countries don’t currently need a visa to come to the UK so we have less data about what happens to them.
- national 异国国民
第六段：
On the one hand, ONS figures were telling us that relatively few former student immigrants actually seemed to be emigrating abroad after finishing their study. On the other, Home Office visa data indicated that most were likely to be leaving.
- ONS: office for national statistics 国家人口统计局
第七段：
This week's exit checks figures firmly took the Home Office’s side. The vast majority of students here on a visa seem to be returning home.
第八段：
That, in turn, has raised new questions about how useful the ONS estimates are and how they can be improved in future.
第十段：
69% of students who previously came to the UK on a long-term visa left once that visa expired in 2016/17. Another 26% extended their visas to remain in the UK and the rest either fell off the radar or appeared to leave after their visa had expired.
- fall off 离开……
第十二段：
Why have we been getting it wrong?
Put simply, stated intentions aren’t the same as outcomes.
第十三段：
ONS student migration figures are based on asking people arriving and leaving the UK why they came here.
第三步：攻克必学语法
Wh词引导的名词性从句
非常简单：特殊疑问句结构转变成陈述句的结构
原文：
That, in turn, has raised new questions about how useful the ONS estimates are and how they can be improved in future.
补充：
I want to see how good you can be.
We are discussing why you are always late.
Tell me who you are.
Is this what you bought in the shop?
I wonder where he gets these strange ideas.
加分任务：精读全文
在之前的三步后，你已经完全具备了精读全文的能力。再多花半个小时，让你的学习效果达到120%！
下载音频
（Tips: 双击文中单词可以查释义并加入你的生词本哦）
Full Fact: Why official estimates about the number of student migrants staying in the UK were wrong
第一段
How many non-EU students are staying in the UK illegally?
This week the Home Office published data on exit checks — gathering information on people as they leave the UK.
- Home Office 英国内政部
第二段：
That data has told us a lot we didn’t previously know about how long people stay in the UK before leaving.
第三段：
Why the fuss about non-EU students?
Non-EU student immigration has been a focus of immigration policy for several years. Since 2010 the government has introduced stricter rules for admitting non-EU students to the UK. Theresa May oversaw this as Home Secretary and has since called for further restrictions as Prime Minister.
第四段：
Non-EU nationals are thought to make up about 70% of student immigration to the UK and they’re subject to immigration controls. Students from EU countries don’t currently need a visa to come to the UK so we have less data about what happens to them.
- national 异国国民
第五段：
Even so, before today we didn’t actually know how many international students returned home after studying in the UK. The available evidence was contradictory.
第六段：
On the one hand, ONS figures were telling us that relatively few former student immigrants actually seemed to be emigrating abroad after finishing their study. On the other, Home Office visa data indicated that most were likely to be leaving.
- ONS: office for national statistics 国家人口统计局
第七段：
This week's exit checks figures firmly took the Home Office’s side. The vast majority of students here on a visa seem to be returning home.
第八段：
That, in turn, has raised new questions about how useful the ONS estimates are and how they can be improved in future.
第九段：
We’ve been underestimating how many international students leave the UK
In the last year, most international students have been leaving the UK once their visas have expired. In other words, non-EU students usually comply with the terms of their visas.
- comply with 服从，遵守
- term 条款
第十段：
69% of students who previously came to the UK on a long-term visa left once that visa expired in 2016/17. Another 26% extended their visas to remain in the UK and the rest either fell off the radar or appeared to leave after their visa had expired.
- fall off 离开……
第十一段：
Not all of those people will have left permanently. Data from the previous year – 2015/16 – shows that 21% of those departing the UK returned next year on a short or long-term visa. Most, however, had not returned to the UK.
第十二段：
Why have we been getting it wrong?
Put simply, stated intentions aren’t the same as outcomes.
第十三段：
ONS student migration figures are based on asking people arriving and leaving the UK why they came here.
第十四段：
There are two main reasons why the statisticians think we might have been getting this wrong. Firstly, when leaving the UK people don’t always accurately recount when and why they first came to the UK. They may stay on after their studies for work, and not report study as their initial reason, for example.
- recount详述；列举
第十五段：
Secondly, people don’t know what they’re going to do next and so might not end up doing what they say they’re planning in a survey.
第十六段：
So if we’ve been overestimating how many students stay in the UK, does this mean that overall migration estimates are wrong?
Given what we’ve said above, it may seem likely, but the ONS says not necessarily.
第十七段：
That’s because if we’re getting students’ intentions wrong, we could be getting other people’s intentions wrong too, and we don’t know how all those errors might add up.
第十八段：
The ONS says this means “further investigation” is needed before any conclusions can be reached. It plans to look again at how it adjusts overall migration figures to account for the fact that people may change their intentions as stated in the survey. It says it will also continue ongoing work to improve the estimates and use new data sources to better inform the wider debate.
第十九段：
In any case, it adds doubt to how reliable the overall estimates are.
第二十段：
For now, it warns that its own intentions figures aren’t robust enough and that the Home Office exit checks data provides a more accurate picture of what non-EU students do after their visas expire.
- robust 强健的，稳固的
- expire 过期
第二十一段：
So shouldn’t we just use exit checks data from now on?
Counting people as they leave the UK can’t solve everything. For one thing, you don’t know how long someone intends to stay abroad.
第二十二段：
If they don’t come back within a year, they’re defined as an emigrant, whereas, if they come back before a year has passed they were only a ‘short’ term migrant or just visiting abroad. A survey can give you a window on that – pure exit data can’t do that straight away.
第二十三段：
None of this tells us anything about EU or UK national students either so we can’t yet get a complete picture of how many students are entering and leaving the UK.
Home Office
英国内政部
national ['næʃnəl]
n. 异国国民
ONS
n. office for national statistics 国家人口统计局
comply with
vt. 服从，遵守
term [tɜːm]
n. 条款
fall off
vt. 离开……
recount [rɪ'kaʊnt]
vt. 详述；列举
robust [rəʊ'bʌst]
adj. 强健的，稳固的
expire [ɪk'spaɪə(r)]
vi. 过期
不要一时兴起，就要天天在一起
明天见！
下载音频
Full Fact: Why official estimates about the number of student migrants staying in the UK were wrong
第一段
How many non-EU students are staying in the UK illegally?
This week the Home Office published data on exit checks — gathering information on people as they leave the UK.
第二段：
That data has told us a lot we didn’t previously know about how long people stay in the UK before leaving.
第三段：
Why the fuss about non-EU students?
Non-EU student immigration has been a focus of immigration policy for several years. Since 2010 the government has introduced stricter rules for admitting non-EU students to the UK. Theresa May oversaw this as Home Secretary and has since called for further restrictions as Prime Minister.
第四段：
Non-EU nationals are thought to make up about 70% of student immigration to the UK and they’re subject to immigration controls. Students from EU countries don’t currently need a visa to come to the UK so we have less data about what happens to them.
第五段：
Even so, before today we didn’t actually know how many international students returned home after studying in the UK. The available evidence was contradictory.
第六段：
On the one hand, ONS figures were telling us that relatively few former student immigrants actually seemed to be emigrating abroad after finishing their study. On the other, Home Office visa data indicated that most were likely to be leaving.
第七段：
This week's exit checks figures firmly took the Home Office’s side. The vast majority of students here on a visa seem to be returning home.
第八段：
That, in turn, has raised new questions about how useful the ONS estimates are and how they can be improved in future.
第九段：
We’ve been underestimating how many international students leave the UK
In the last year, most international students have been leaving the UK once their visas have expired. In other words, non-EU students usually comply with the terms of their visas.
第十段：
69% of students who previously came to the UK on a long-term visa left once that visa expired in 2016/17. Another 26% extended their visas to remain in the UK and the rest either fell off the radar or appeared to leave after their visa had expired.
第十一段：
Not all of those people will have left permanently. Data from the previous year – 2015/16 – shows that 21% of those departing the UK returned next year on a short or long-term visa. Most, however, had not returned to the UK.
第十二段：
Why have we been getting it wrong?
Put simply, stated intentions aren’t the same as outcomes.
第十三段：
ONS student migration figures are based on asking people arriving and leaving the UK why they came here.
第十四段：
There are two main reasons why the statisticians think we might have been getting this wrong. Firstly, when leaving the UK people don’t always accurately recount when and why they first came to the UK. They may stay on after their studies for work, and not report study as their initial reason, for example.
第十五段：
Secondly, people don’t know what they’re going to do next and so might not end up doing what they say they’re planning in a survey.
第十六段：
So if we’ve been overestimating how many students stay in the UK, does this mean that overall migration estimates are wrong?
Given what we’ve said above, it may seem likely, but the ONS says not necessarily.
第十七段：
That’s because if we’re getting students’ intentions wrong, we could be getting other people’s intentions wrong too, and we don’t know how all those errors might add up.
第十八段：
The ONS says this means “further investigation” is needed before any conclusions can be reached. It plans to look again at how it adjusts overall migration figures to account for the fact that people may change their intentions as stated in the survey. It says it will also continue ongoing work to improve the estimates and use new data sources to better inform the wider debate.
第十九段：
In any case, it adds doubt to how reliable the overall estimates are.
第二十段：
For now, it warns that its own intentions figures aren’t robust enough and that the Home Office exit checks data provides a more accurate picture of what non-EU students do after their visas expire.
第二十一段：
So shouldn’t we just use exit checks data from now on?
Counting people as they leave the UK can’t solve everything. For one thing, you don’t know how long someone intends to stay abroad.
第二十二段：
If they don’t come back within a year, they’re defined as an emigrant, whereas, if they come back before a year has passed they were only a ‘short’ term migrant or just visiting abroad. A survey can give you a window on that – pure exit data can’t do that straight away.
第二十三段：
None of this tells us anything about EU or UK national students either so we can’t yet get a complete picture of how many students are entering and leaving the UK.