When a bubble is not a bubble

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来源: http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21708674-severe-imbalance-land-supply-fuels-chinas-wild-property-market-when-bubble

[1] A severe imbalance in land supply fuels China’s wild property market

severe 英[sɪˈvɪə(r)]
美[sɪˈvɪr]
adj. 严峻的; 严厉的; 剧烈的; 苛刻的;
[例句]I suffered from severe bouts of depression
我曾患有严重的抑郁症。

imbalance 英[ɪmˈbæləns]
美[ɪmˈbæləns]
n. 不平衡; 失调; 不安定;
[例句]Social imbalance worries him more than inequity of income.
社会失衡比收入不公平更令他忧虑。

fuel 英[ˈfju:əl]
美[ˈfjuəl]
n. 燃料; （为身体提供能量的） 食物; （维持、增加感情的） 刺激物; 竞选提神（或兴奋）剂（一种健怡可乐，饮用后能使人精力充沛地从事竞选活动）;
vt. 给…加燃料，给…加油; 激起;
vi. 补充燃料;
[例句]They ran out of fuel.
他们的燃料用完了。

property 英[ˈprɒpəti]
美[ˈprɑ:pərti]
n. 特性，属性; 财产，地产; [戏] 道具; 所有权;
[例句]Richard could easily destroy her personal property to punish her for walking out on him
理查德能轻易毁掉她的私人财产来惩罚她对他的背叛。

[2] ESTATE agents in China, as elsewhere in the world, are normally a smooth-talking, self-assured bunch. But Liu Zhendong, a salesman at a large development in the northern reaches of Shanghai, is afflicted by doubts. He had expected business to be solid and steady this year. Instead, it has been manic, with clients jostling to see show apartments. Some had hoped to wait for the market to cool, but capitulated and bought as prices climbed higher week after week. Flats in the area, the once-rural village of Malu, still dotted with fields and scruffy wholesale food markets, now cost 90% more than a year ago. “It feels a bit like a bubble,” he says.

estate 英[ɪˈsteɪt]
美[ɪˈstet]
n. 财产，遗产，房地产; 个人财产; 不动产权; （较高的） 社会地位;
adj. （汽车）连箱的（拥有较长的车身和后门，后座后面有较大的空间） ;
[例句]He used to live on the estate.
他过去曾住在那个住宅区。

agent 英[ˈeɪdʒənt]
美[ˈedʒənt]
n. 代理人; 代理商; 特工; 药剂;
vt. 由…作中介; 由…代理;
adj. 代理的;
[例句]You are buying direct, rather than through an agent.
你这是直接购买，而不是通过代理人。

bunch 英[bʌntʃ]
美[bʌntʃ]
n. 束，串，捆; 一串，一群; 一帮，一伙; [非正式用语] 大量;
vt. 聚成一串，形成一串; 聚成一组; 使起褶：使（织物）起褶;
vi. 形成一串，形成一组; 打褶; 膨胀，凸出;
[例句]My neighbours are a bunch of busybodies
我的邻居们是一群爱管闲事的人。

afflict 英[əˈflɪkt]
美[əˈflɪkt]
vt. 折磨; 使受痛苦; 使苦恼;
[例句]The afflicted person should keep off solid foods and drink plenty of fluids.
病人不应吃固体食物而要多喝流质食物。

jostling 英['dʒɒslɪŋ]
美['dʒɒslɪŋ]
n. 推撞，冲撞别人的马;
v. 撞; 争夺; 推; 挤( jostle的现在分词 );
[例句]We spent an hour jostling with the crowds as we did our shopping
我们购物的时候，花了1个钟头在人群中挤来挤去。

capitulate 英[kəˈpɪtʃuleɪt]
美[kəˈpɪtʃəˌlet]
vi. 让步; 认输，屈服; 屈从，停止反抗; 有条件投降;
[例句]The club eventually capitulated and now grants equal rights to women
那家俱乐部最终还是让了步，现在赋予女性以平等权利。

scruffy 英[ˈskrʌfi]
美[ˈskrʌfi]
adj. 邋遢的; 破旧的; 肮脏的，不整洁的; 杂乱的;
[例句]Now a rash of scruffy little shops bordered one side of the street.
现在街道的一边排满了各种破旧的小店。

[3] Mr Liu is in good company. Even the head of the central bank’s research bureau, usually cautious in his choice of language, has said a property bubble must be stopped before it gets too big. House prices have climbed by 16% nationwide over the past year, and double or even triple that in big cities. So in the past two weeks more than 20 municipalities have tried to calm the market down—for example, by requiring higher down-payments or limiting purchases by residents of other cities.

bureau 英[ˈbjʊərəʊ]
美[ˈbjʊroʊ]
n. 局; （提供某方面信息的） 办事处; （美国政府部门） 局; （附抽屉及活动写字台的） 书桌;
[例句]Contact the Tourist Information Bureau for further details
详情请洽旅游信息处。
triple 英[ˈtrɪpl]
美[ˈtrɪpəl]
adj. 三倍的，三方的，三部分的;
vt. （使） 增至三倍;
n. 三倍的数[量]; 三个一组; [棒] 三垒安打;
[例句]In 1882 Germany, Austria, and Italy formed the Triple Alliance.
1882年，德国、奥地利和意大利结成了三国同盟。
municipality
英[mju:ˌnɪsɪˈpæləti]
美[mjuˌnɪsəˈpælɪti]
n. 自治市; 市政当局;
[例句]Our municipality is divided into ten districts.
我们这个市，下面设10个区。
down-payment 英['daʊnp'eɪmənt]
美['daʊnp'eɪmənt]
[词典] 分期付款的首笔付款;
[例句]In April they imposed new curbs on housing speculation, raising down-payment requirements and mortgage rates.
在四月，他们对房地产投机者采取了强硬的新措施，提高了首付要求和按揭利率
resident 英[ˈrezɪdənt]
美[ˈrɛzɪdənt, -ˌdɛnt]
adj. 定居的，常驻的; [计] 常驻的，常存于内存中的; [动]不迁徙的（鸟兽等）; 固有的，内在的;
n. 居民; （旅馆的） 住宿者; 住院医师;
[例句]The Archbishop called upon the government to build more low cost homes for local residents
大主教呼吁政府为当地居民建造更多低成本的住宅。

长难句：
Even the head of the central bank’s research bureau, usually cautious in his choice of language, has said a property bubble must be stopped > before it gets too big.
Even 副词，强调让步
the head：名词放在句首作主语。头儿
of the central bank’s research bureau：介词短语修饰the head。
, usually cautious in his choice of language,：两个逗号中间是插入语，修饰the head。
has said：谓语动词，主语是the head。
a property bubble must be stopped before it gets too big：宾语从句，从句主语是bubble，谓语是must be stopped。Before是时间状语。
大意：就连中央银行研究中心的头儿，通常对于自己的

[4] As the past decade has shown, the ups and down of China’s housing market are of global significance. Totting up the property sector’s impact on investment and consumption (all the furniture and gizmos that fill new homes), it accounts for about a quarter of Chinese GDP. So this year’s rebound has prompted both hope and dread. It has helped GDP growth stabilise at about 6.7%, faster than most analysts forecast in January (third-quarter data will be released on October 19th). Stronger demand for iron ore and copper has given beleaguered miners a measure of relief.

gizmo 英[ˈgɪzməʊ]
美[ˈɡɪzmo]
n. 小发明;
[例句]Rubin claims the gizmo can even improve your sex life.
鲁宾说这个小发明甚至能提高你的性生活。
dread 英[dred]
美[drɛd]
vt. 害怕，担心; （古语） 敬畏;
n. 恐惧，畏惧; 令人恐惧的事物;
adj. 可怕的;
[例句]I'm dreading Christmas this year
今年我非常害怕过圣诞节。
copper 英[ˈkɒpə(r)]
美[ˈkɑ:pə(r)]
n. 铜; 铜币; 紫铜色; 警察;
adj. 铜制的;
vt. 镀铜;
[例句]Chile is the world's largest producer of copper.
智利是世界上最大的产铜国。
beleaguered 英[bɪˈli:gəd]
美[bɪˈli:gərd]
adj. 受到围困[围攻]的; 包围的;
v. 围攻( beleaguer的过去式和过去分词); 困扰; 骚扰;
[例句]There have been seven coup attempts against the beleaguered government.
风雨飘摇的政府已经遭到了7次未遂政变的打击。

[5] Optimism, however, has been tempered by concerns about the nature of the revival. Surveys indicate that about one-fifth of buyers are investors rather than owner-occupiers. CEBM, a research firm, estimates that this share rises to up to 60% in core districts of mid-sized cities. Even more worrying has been the increase in property developers’ borrowing. Zhang Zhiwei of Deutsche Bank says they face a prisoner’s dilemma: if too conservative, they will get squeezed out of the market; so they choose to be aggressive. They have driven up land prices by 66% this year, according to an index of 100 leading cities. Mr Zhang examined 252 of these land auctions and concluded that two-fifths of winning bidders will lose money if house prices level out, let alone decline.

optimism 英[ˈɒptɪmɪzəm]
美[ˈɑ:ptɪmɪzəm]
n. 乐观; 乐观主义;
[例句]This was not optimism, it was delusion.
这不是乐观，这是妄想。
temper 英[ˈtempə(r)]
美[ˈtɛmpɚ]
n. 性情，脾气; 特征; （钢等） 回火; 怒气;
vt. 锻炼; 调和; 使回火; 缓和;
vi. 使调和;
[例句]He had a temper and could be nasty
他脾气不大好，有时凶得很。
prisoner’s dilemma
网络 囚徒困境; 囚犯困境;
[例句]He compares such a collaboration to the classic prisoner's dilemma.
他将这种协作与经典的囚犯困境进行比较。
squeeze 英[skwi:z]
美[skwiz]
vt. 挤，榨，捏; 压迫，压榨;
vt. 榨取，汲取; 轻轻地捏; 向…勒索（或榨取）;
vi. 在强压下屈服; 施加压力; 挤过去;
[例句]He squeezed her arm reassuringly
他安慰地捏了捏她的胳膊。

[6] The sharp rise in house prices also seems out of kilter with the broader economic picture. Income growth is slowing as the economy matures, making homes steadily less affordable. That helps explain the frenzy in the market. During a holiday week at the start of October, huge crowds swamped sales centres when new properties were put on the market. In Shanghai, divorces have spiked as people take advantage of a loophole in regulations. Couples can get a preferential mortgage rate only on their first home. Divorced spouses can benefit by buying homes separately and then remarrying.

kilter 英[ˈkɪltə(r)]
美[ˈkɪltɚ]
n. <主美>良好状态，顺利，平衡;
[例句]Her lifestyle was out of kilter with her politics
她的生活方式与她的政治活动格格不入。
affordable
英[ə'fɔ:dəbl]
美[əˈfɔrdəbəl, əˈfor-]
adj. 付得起的;
[例句]The company makes wearable, beautifully cut clothes at affordable prices.
这家公司生产经久耐穿、外形美观且价格合理的服装。
frenzy 英[ˈfrenzi]
美[ˈfrɛnzi]
n. 狂怒; 狂乱，狂暴; 极度的激动;
vt. 使发狂; 使狂乱; 使狂怒;
[例句]'Get out!' she ordered in a frenzy
“滚出去！”她狂怒地命令道。
swamp 英[swɒmp]
美[swɑ:mp]
n. 湿地; 沼泽（地）;
vt. 淹没; 使沉没; 使陷入困难; 忙得不可开交;
vi. 淹没，沉没;
[例句]A rogue wave swamped the boat
凶猛的海浪淹没了船只。
spike 英[spaɪk]
美[spaɪk]
n. 长钉; 细高跟; （防滑） 鞋钉; 尖状物;
vt. 加烈酒于; 以大钉钉牢; 用尖物刺伤; 打乱某人的计划;
[例句]Yellowing receipts had been impaled on a metal spike.
发黄的收据被穿在一根金属扦上。
loophole 英[ˈlu:phəʊl]
美[ˈlu:phoʊl]
n. 漏洞; 枪眼; 观察孔;
[例句]It is estimated that 60,000 shops open every Sunday and trade by exploiting some loophole in the law to avoid prosecution.
据估计，每逢周日开门营业的店铺有6万家，通过钻法律漏洞躲避检控。
mortgage 英[ˈmɔ:gɪdʒ]
美[ˈmɔ:rgɪdʒ]
n. 抵押; 抵押单据，抵押证明; 抵押权，债权;
vt. 抵押;
[例句]They had to mortgage their home to pay the bills.
他们不得不抵押房屋借贷来支付这些款项。

[7] Such behaviour smacks of irrational exuberance, but caution is in order before delivering that verdict. Investors, analysts and the press have been predicting Chinese real-estate Armageddon for the better part of a decade. But there has been no nationwide crash. Prices have weakened for a time, typically when the government clamps down on buying, only to take off again every few years.

smack 英[smæk]
美[smæk]
vt. 拍，打，掴;
n. 掌掴（声）; 海洛因; （打的） 一拳; 打巴掌;
adv. 直接地; 准确地; 猛烈地; 急剧地;
[例句]She smacked me on the side of the head.
她狠狠地拍了一下我的脑袋。
exuberance 英[ɪɡ'zju:bərəns]
美[ɪɡˈzubərəns]
n. 繁茂，丰富; 充沛，充溢;
[例句]The sheer exuberance of the sculpture was exhilarating.
那尊雕塑表现出的勃勃生机让人振奋。
Armageddon 英[ˌɑ:məˈgedn]
美[ˌɑ:rməˈgedn]
n. (<圣经>中说的) 世界末日的善恶大决战;
[例句]They called the first World War an Armageddon.
他们称第一次世界大战为哈米吉多顿战役。
clamp 英[klæmp]
美[klæmp]
vt. 夹紧，夹住; 锁住; 把（砖等）堆高，堆存; 脚步很重地走;
n. 钳，夹子; 压板，压铁; 车轮锁; （砖等的） 堆;
vt. 紧紧抓住; 紧夹住; 被抓住; 被夹紧;
[例句]Somebody forgot to bring along the U-bolts to clamp the microphones to the pole.
有人忘了带把麦克风固定在支架上的U形螺栓。

[8] For all the signs of excess, officials have in fact done well to guard against the biggest potential vulnerability: over-borrowing by homebuyers. Despite a recent surge in mortgage lending, household balance-sheets are on the whole in good shape. Moreover, strict down-payment rules mean that buyers typically put up cash for as much as half the price of the home. Even if prices fall, they are unlikely to walk away from their mortgage debt. This helps insure against the downward spiral of foreclosures and falling prices that has wreaked havoc in other countries.

vulnerability
英[ˌvʌlnərə'bɪlətɪ]
美[ˌvʌlnərə'bɪlətɪ]
n. 脆弱性; 弱点，攻击; 易伤性; 致命性;
[例句]Fundamentally, women like him for his sensitivity and charming vulnerability
基本说来，女人喜欢他是因为他细腻的情感和迷人的文弱气质。
balance sheet 英[ˈbæləns ʃi:t]
美[ˈbæləns ʃit]
n. 资产负债表; 财务状况表;
[例句]Rolls-Royce needed a strong balance sheet.
劳斯莱斯公司需要稳健的资产负债表。
spiral 英[ˈspaɪrəl]
美[ˈspaɪrəl]
n. 旋涡; 螺旋（线）; 螺旋形物; （足球运动的） 旋球;
v. 使成螺旋形; 螺旋式的上升（或下降盘旋上升（或下降）;
adj. 螺旋形的; 盘旋的; 盘旋上升的;
[例句]Production costs began to spiral.
生产成本开始急遽上升。
downward spiral
英[ˈdaunwəd ˈspaiərəl]
美[ˈdaʊnwəd ˈspaɪrəl]
n. 恶性循环;
[例句]A downward spiral had began.
向下螺旋坠落便开始了。
foreclosure
英[fɔ:ˈkləʊʒə(r)]
美[fɔ:rˈkloʊʒə(r)]
n. 丧失抵押品赎回权，排斥;
[例句]If homeowners can't keep up the payments, they face foreclosure
业主如果未能按时交房贷，就会面临丧失抵押品赎回权的危险。
wreak 英[ri:k]
美[rik]
vt. 造成（混乱或破坏）; 实施（报复）;
[例句]Violent storms wreaked havoc on the French Riviera, leaving three people dead and dozens injured
猛烈的暴风雨给法国里维埃拉地区造成了极大的破坏，致使三人死亡，数十人受伤。
havoc 英[ˈhævək]
美['hævək]
n. 大破坏，浩劫; 蹂躏，摧残; 大混乱，大骚动;
vt. 严重破坏; 毁灭;
vi. 损毁;
[例句]Rioters caused havoc in the centre of the town.
暴乱分子在市中心制造了极大混乱。

长难句：
This helps insure against the downward spiral of foreclosures and falling prices that has wreaked havoc in other countries.
This：逆向指代前面句子中的Even if prices fall, they are unlikely to walk away from their mortgage debt.即使房价下跌，他们也不可能从自己的房贷中脱身。
helps：这是帮助的意思
insure against：insure是动词，确保，这里insure against sth其实就是应对某件事。
the downward spiral of foreclosures and falling prices that has wreaked havoc in other countries：这里核心是the downward spiral and falling prices，其中of foreclosures修饰spiral，that has wreaked havoc in other countries引导的定语从句修饰falling prices。
大意：即使房价下跌，他们也不可能从自己的房贷中脱身。这有利于应对丧失抵押品赎回权带来的恶性循环以及已经带给其他国家极大伤害的价格下跌。

[9] This is not to deny that the Chinese property market faces serious problems. But “bubble” may be a misdiagnosis. The real pathology is a severe imbalance in land supply, argues Larry Hu of Macquarie Securities. Smaller cities have plenty of land for building but shrinking populations. Big cities, where people actually want to live and work, are sitting on large land banks but releasing only small plots. Shanghai has about 1,800 sq km of farmland but sold only five sq km for home-building last year. The result, predictably, has been soaring home prices.

misdiagnosis
英[ˌmɪsdaɪəɡ'nəʊsɪs]
美[ˌmɪsdaɪəɡ'noʊsɪs]
n. 错误的诊断，误诊，错误的判断;
[例句]Yet misdiagnosis of TB can be harmful both to patients and to public health.
然而，结核病的误诊可能对病人和公共卫生都有害。
plot 英[plɒt]
美[plɑ:t]
n. 地基，基址图; （戏剧、小说等的） 情节; 一块地; 测算表;
vt. 密谋; 以图表画出，制图; 把…分成小块; 为（文学作品）设计情节;
vi. 设计作品情节; 标示于图表上; 密谋，暗中策划;
[例句]Security forces have uncovered a plot to overthrow the government
安全部队揭露了一起推翻政府的阴谋。

长难句：
Big cities, where people actually want to live and work, are sitting on large land banks but releasing only small plots.
Big cities：名词放在句首作主语。
where people actually want to live and work：定语从句修饰big cities。
are sitting on large land banks but releasing only small plots：谓语动词是are sitting…but releasing…but后面releasing前面省略了are。
大意：大家都想去工作和生活的大城市，坐拥很多土地，但是放出来的很少。

[10] Why not sell much more land in big cities? Doing so would fundamentally alter the rules of the game, causing pain for lots of important players, Mr Hu argues. Governments in big cities count on incremental land sales as a source of revenue; governments in small cities hope the restrictions will eventually send people their way. This is, in other words, a political problem as much as an economic one.

alter 英[ˈɔ:ltə(r)]
美[ˈɔltɚ]
vt. 改变; 更改; 改建（房屋）; （人） 变老;
vi. 改变; 修改;
[例句]Little had altered in the village
村子里几乎没有什么变化。
incremental 英[ˌɪŋkrə'mentl]
美[ˌɪŋkrə'mentl]
adj. 增加的;
[例句]We are seeking continuous, incremental improvements, not great breakthroughs.
我们在寻求持续的、渐进的改善，而不是重大的突破。

长难句：
Governments in big cities count on incremental land sales as a source of revenue; governments in small cities hope the restrictions will eventually send people their way.
SVO; SVO.并列句。
分号前面是第一句：
Governments in big cities：名词放在句首作主语，大城市的政府。
count on：动词count和on搭配，一起作谓语。
incremental land sales：句子的宾语。
as a source of revenue：介词短语修饰incremental land sales
大意：大城市的政府指望着把逐步的土地销售当作一个收入来源。
分号后面的句子：
governments in small cities：名词放在句首作第二个句子的主语，和第一个句子对应。
Hope：hope是谓语动词
the restrictions will eventually send people their way：宾语从句表示hope希望的内容。
大意：小城市的政府则希望，限购可以把大家送到自己这里来。

[11] Mr Liu, the agent at the Malu development, knows both sides of the property market. A few years ago he bought a flat in his home town of Jiuhuashan, a five-hour drive to the south-west. It now gathers dust, empty except for a week during the Chinese New Year holiday, when he returns home. Still young, he has no intention of moving back to Jiuhuashan permanently. The mountains there are stunning but the economy sleepy. Rather, Mr Liu hopes to buy a home in Shanghai eventually and has started saving up for it. The booming prices of the past year have kept him busy at work, but pushed his dream ever further into the distance.

flat 英[flæt]
美[flæt]
adj. 平的; 单调的; 不景气的; 干脆的;
adv. （尤指贴着另一表面） 平直地; 断然地; 水平地; 直接地，完全地;
n. 平面; 公寓; 平地;
[例句]Sara lives with her husband and children in a flat in central London
萨拉和丈夫还有孩子们住在伦敦中心城区的一间公寓里。
stunning 英[ˈstʌnɪŋ]
美[ˈstʌnɪŋ]
adj. 令人震惊的; 令人晕倒（吃惊）的，震耳欲聋的; 极好的，出色的;
v. 击晕(stun的现在分词);
[例句]The minister resigned last night after a stunning defeat in Sunday's vote
在周日的选举中意外惨败后，部长于昨晚辞职。

长难句：
The booming prices of the past year have kept him busy at work, but pushed his dream ever further into the distance.
The booming prices：名词放在句首作主语。
of the past year：介词短语永远是修饰语，删掉不影响句子主架构。
have kept him busy at work：第一个谓语结构
but并列连词，并列前后两个谓语动词。
pushed his dream ever further into the distance：这里pushed前面省略了have和前面的have kept并列共同作句子谓语。
大意：去年房价的飙升使得他忙于工作，但是也让他距离自己的梦想越来越远。

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