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Donald Trump seeks a grand bargain with Vladimir Putin. This is a terrible idea
bargain [ˈbɑːɡɪn]
n. 交易;便宜货;契约
v. 讨价还价;议价;(谈价钱后)卖
They lost the bargain. 他们没能成交。
[1] GEORGE W. BUSH looked into Vladimir Putin’s eyes and thought he saw his soul. He was wrong. Barack Obama attempted to “reset” relations with Russia, but by the end of his term in office Russia had annexed Crimea, stirred up conflict elsewhere in Ukraine and filled the power vacuum that Mr Obama had left in Syria. Donald Trump appears to want to go much further and forge an entirely new strategic alignment with Russia. Can he succeed, or will he be the third American president in a row to be outfoxed by Mr Putin?
annex [æˈnɛks; (for n.)ˈænɛks]
n. 附加物;附属建筑物 vt. 附加;获得;并吞
In signing this Order, President Obama has frozen the property and interests in property of the three entities and one individual listed on the Annex.
奥巴马总统通过签署这项行政命令,冻结了列入《附件》的三个实体与一名个人的财产和权益。
stir [stɜː]
n. 搅拌;轰动
vi. 搅动;传播;走动 vt. 搅拌;激起;惹起
The dregs are stirred up. 残渣被搅起。
vacuum ['vækjʊəm]
n. 真空;空间;真空吸尘器
adj. 真空的;利用真空的;产生真空的 vt. 用真空吸尘器清扫
On Saturdays we dust and vacuum. 每星期六我们扫除灰尘并用真空吸尘器打扫。
forge [fɔːdʒ]
n. 熔炉,锻铁炉;铁工厂
vt. 伪造;锻造;前进 vi. 伪造;做锻工;前进
Ultimately, it is the Libyan people themselves who will forge the path forward forLibya. 最终,是利比亚人民自己将为利比亚的未来开拓出前进的道路。
alignment [ə'laɪnm(ə)nt] n. 队列,成直线;校准;结盟
For horizontal alignment, this must be consistent with the message model. 为了取得水平对齐,这必须与消息模型一致。
outfox [aʊt'fɒks]
vt. 以计取胜;以机智胜过
Does anyone know how to outfox destiny? 有没有人知道如何战胜命运呢?
长难句:
Barack Obama attempted to “reset” relations with Russia, but by the end of his term in office Russia had annexed Crimea, stirred up conflict elsewhere in Ukraine and filled the power vacuum that Mr Obama had left in Syria.
句子架构分析:本句子是并列句,其中 but 是并列连词,所以架构抽象出来就是 SVO, but SVO. But 并列前 后两个完整的句子。
前面的 SVO: Barack Obama attempted to “reset” relations with Russia 这个句子简单直接 后面的 SVO:主干是 Russia had annexed..., stirred up..., and filled...三个谓语动词并列。
注释:Barack Obama attempted to “reset” relations with Russia, 奥巴马也试图 reset 重修美俄关系,but 但是呢,转折之后是重点嘛: by the end of his term in office 这都是表示时间的,到他任期结束之际,我 们会发现他任期结束的时候,俄罗斯做了三件事都很不给面儿:
第一件事:Russia had annexed Crimea 俄国吞并了克里米亚,注意这里面的用词和表达,annex 意为吞并, 强占,源于拉丁文,本意是系于---的意思,后来延伸为附加物,作动词有强占的意义,equals occupy。 第二件事:stirred up conflict elsewhere in Ukraine 在乌克兰的其他地区引发了冲突,stirred up,你发音 这个单词有没有一种转圈圈的感觉,它的意思就是搅拌,煽动,涟漪,比如:love stirred in her heart,她 心中萌动,那,似乎是爱情。在本文的语境中,就是煽动了
第三件事:filled the power vacuum that Mr Obama had left in Syria 填补了奥巴马在叙利亚留下的权利真 空。~接着一个常用的表达,filled the power vacuum,填补权利真空。 大意:奥巴马也试图修复和普金的关系,但是在奥巴马任期结束之际,俄国吞并了克里米亚,在乌克兰其 他地区引发冲突,并且还填补了奥巴马在叙利亚留下的权利真空。
[2] The details of Mr Trump’s realignment are still vague and changeable. That is partly because of disagreements in his inner circle. Even as his ambassador to the UN offered “clear and strong condemnation” of “Russia’s aggressive actions” in Ukraine, the president’s bromance with Mr Putin was still smouldering. When an interviewer on Fox News put it to Mr Trump this week that Mr Putin is “a killer”, he retorted: “There are a lot of killers. What, you think our country’s so innocent?”
realignment [,ri:ə'lainmənt]
n. 重新排列;重新组合;改组
The realignment in Listing 8 causes the structure to be of 24 bytes.
清单 8 中的重新排列导致该结构的大小变为 24 个字节。 vague [veɪg]
adj. 模糊的;含糊的;不明确的;暧昧的
One must not be vague on matters of principle.
在原则问题上不能含糊。
ambassador [æm'bæsədə] n. 大使;代表;使节
She agreed to accompany the ambassador. 她同意陪大使。
condemnation [,kɒndəm'neɪʃn] n. 谴责;定罪;非难的理由;征用
If you have received Jesus as your Savior, then there is no condemnation for those who are in Christ. 如果你把耶稣当作你的救世主,他不会谴责那些相信基督的人。
smouldering ['sməuldəriŋ]
v. 发烟燃烧;低温炼焦,低温干馏;阴燃(smoulder 的 ing 形式)
I like a selection of beech for fast-burning and oak for smouldering. 我喜欢用山毛榉木快速燃烧,用橡木阴燃。
[3] For an American president to suggest that his own country is as murderous as Russia is unprecedented, wrong and a gift to Moscow’s propagandists. And for Mr Trump to think that Mr Putin has much to offer America is a miscalculation not just of Russian power and interests, but also of the value of what America might have to give up in return.
murderous ['mɜːd(ə)rəs]
adj. 杀人的,残忍的;凶残的;蓄意谋杀的
What they end up doing is colluding with murderous family-run regimes. 但是它们最终却和凶残的家族政权勾结了起来。
propagandist [prɒpə'gændɪst] n. 宣传者;传播者
adj. 宣传的;传道的
Also, the propagandist, especially during speeches, may attempt to increase theillusion through imperfect pronunciation, stuttering, and a more limited vocabulary. 同样,宣传者,尤其是在演讲的时候,会试图通过不完美的发音,结巴,有限的词汇量,等等,来增强这 种印象。
长难句:
For an American president to suggest that his own country is as murderous as Russia is unprecedented,
wrong and a gift to Moscow’s propagandists.
介词短语:For an American president
句子架构分析:句子的核心就是 To suggest sth is unprecedented, wrong and a gift。
宾语从句:that his own country is as murderous as Russia 是 suggest 的宾语从句 注释:有人说,哎呀,不定式能做主语嘛,to see is to believe,请记住这句话,注意 to suggest 后面的 sth 其实就是一个 that 引导的从句 his own country is as murderous as Russia~搞清楚主语之后,这句话就暴 简单了。谓语是 is。 大意:对于一个美国总统,称自己国家像俄罗斯一样凶残,这是前所未有的,非常错误的,也是给亲俄派 的一份礼物。
For Mr Trump to think that Mr Putin has much to offer America is a miscalculation not just of Russian power and interests, but also of the value of what America might have to give up in return. 介词短语:For Mr Trump
句子的核心:to think sth is a miscalculation。
宾语从句:that Mr Putin has much to offer America 是 think 的宾语 sth
平行结构: not just...but also
注释:For Mr Trump 是介词短语做修饰语,to think sth is a miscalculation 中的 sth 就是 that 从句的内容 Mr Putin has much to offer America 川普认为普京可以给予美国很多帮助。后面 not just 和 but also 后面 的介词短语并列修饰 miscalculation 这不仅是对俄罗斯的力量和兴趣的误判,同时也是对美国能够为此做 出多少牺牲的误判。这里大家注意 miscalculation 的用法其实比较像我们平常的说法;错误算盘。如果我 们想要说某个人精于算计,英文的表达就是 calculating。。。。。。 大意:对于川普来说,认为普金能够给予美国很多帮助,这不仅是对俄罗斯的能力和兴趣的误判,同时也 是对美国能够为此做出多少牺牲的误判。
The art of the deal meets the tsar of the steal
tsar [zɑː; tsɑː]
n. 沙皇(大权独揽的人物)
Tsar Alexander III was on the train into Nice shortly after the line opened in the 1860s. Napoleon III of France followed. 在这条铁路开通后不久的1860年代,沙皇亚历山大三世乘火车到了尼斯,后面紧跟着法国的拿破仑三世。
[4] Going by the chatter around Mr Trump (see page 16), the script for Russia looks something like this: America would team up with Mr Putin to destroy “radical Islamic terror”—and in particular, Islamic State (IS). At the same time Russia might agree to abandon its collaboration with Iran, an old enemy for America in the Middle East and a threat to its allies, including Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. In Europe Russia would stop fomenting conflict in Ukraine, agree not to harass NATO members on its doorstep and, possibly, enter nuclear-arms-control talks. In the longer term, closer ties with Russia could also help curb Chinese expansion. Stephen Bannon, Mr Trump’s most alarming adviser, said last year that he had “no doubt” that “we’re going to war in the South China Sea in five to ten years.” If so, America will need allies, and Russia is a nuclear power with a 4,200km (2,600-mile) border with China. What’s not to like?
chatter ['tʃætə]
n. 唠叨;饶舌;(动物的)啁啾声;潺潺流水声 vt. 喋喋不休地说;使卡嗒卡嗒作声
vi. 唠叨;喋喋不休;(动物等)吱吱叫
Cold made his teeth chatter. 寒冷使他的牙齿打颤。
foment [fə(ʊ)'ment] vt. 煽动;挑起;热敷
But does it contribute to robust public discussion or, instead, foment hatred andpromote conflict? 但是,这样做是有助于推动活跃的公共讨论,还是会煽动仇恨和助长冲突?
harass ['hærəs; hə'ræs]
vt. 使困扰;使烦恼;反复袭击
He realized early that the best strategy was to harass the British. 他很早就认识到,最好的战略就是骚扰英国人。
curb [kɜːb]
n. 抑制;路边;勒马绳 vt. 控制;勒住
We must curb the spread and use of these weapons. 我们必须遏制这类武器的扩散和使用。
长难句:
At the same time Russia might agree to abandon its collaboration with Iran, an old enemy for America in the Middle East and a threat to its allies, including Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.
时间状语:At the same time
句子主干:Russia might agree to abandon its collaboration
介词短语:with Iran 修饰名词 collaboration
同位语:an old enemy for America and a threat to its allies 两个名词并列共同作 Iran 的同位语。
注释:At the same time 同时呢,Russia might agree,注意这里是也许会同意,同意什么?agree to abandon its collaboration with Iran 同意放弃其与伊朗的合作,后面是一个同位语,an old enemy for America in the Middle East,伊朗是美国的对头大家都知道,继续看 and a threat to its allies,谁是 threat,谁的 allies, 想要搞清楚这点就要明白 and 并列的是什么?上节课我们讲过,and 并列的前后是平行结构对吧,后面是 a threat,往前找,类似的结构是什么,an old enemy 吧,看来这里的 threat 指的仍然是伊朗,its 固然就 是米国了,米国在中东地区有好 buddies,伊朗对他们也有威胁。 大意:同时呢,俄国可能会统一它们和伊朗的合作,伊朗呢是美国在中东的老对头,也是美国中东盟友, 比如沙特阿拉伯啊的威胁。
[5] Pretty much everything. Russian hacking may have helped Mr Trump at the polls, but that does not mean he can trust Mr Putin. The Kremlin’s interests and America’s are worlds apart.
poll [pəʊl]
n. 投票;民意测验;投票数;投票所
adj. 无角的;剪过毛的;修过枝的
vt. 投票;剪短;对...进行民意测验;获得选票 vi. 投票
Who else do they poll for? 它还为谁做民意调查?
[6] In Syria, for example, Mr Putin makes a big noise about fighting IS terrorists, but he has made no real effort to do so. His price for working with America could be to secure a permanent Russian military presence in the Middle East by propping up Bashar al-Assad, whose regime was revealed this week to have hanged thousands of Syrians after two- or three-minute trials. None of this is good for Syria, regional stability or America.
[7] Even if Mr Putin and Mr Trump shared a common goal (they don’t) and Americans did not mind becoming complicit in Russian atrocities (they should), American and Russian forces cannot easily fight side by side. Their systems do not work together. To make them do so would require sharing military secrets that the Pentagon spends a fortune protecting. Besides, Russian aircraft do not add much to the coalition air power already attacking IS. Ground troops would, but Mr Putin is highly unlikely to deploy them.
permanent ['pɜːm(ə)nənt]
n. 烫发(等于 permanent wave) adj. 永久的,永恒的;不变的
The life of the moment has its rights, we admit, but permanent life has its rightsalso. 目前的生活有权被重视,我们承认这一点,但永久的生活也有它的权利。
propping ['prɔpiŋ] n. 支撑
v. 支撑;支持(prop 的现在分词);搁
In most cases, you can do this by lying down and propping the injury up on pillows.
在许多情况下,你可以躺下,然后用枕头支撑受伤的部位来做这个。
atrocity [ə'trɒsɪtɪ] n. 暴行;凶恶,残暴
Seeing such a terrible sight before his eyes, he was savaged by his enemy's atrocity. 看到眼前这可怖的场景,他被敌方的暴行激怒了。
pentagon ['pentəɡ(ə)n] n. 五角形
The space shuttle undertook a topsecret mission with a military payload underPentagon control. 航天飞机执行一项绝密使命,使军用酬载由五角大楼控制。
coalition [,kəʊə'lɪʃ(ə)n] n. 联合;结合,合并
Yes, France and Britain have squabbled over who will lead, but in this new kind ofmultilateralism, coalition management will be a constant challenge. 是的,法国和英国已经为谁领导这次行动争执不休,在这种新多边主义中,联合管理将是一种长期的挑战!
[8] Likewise, Russia is not about to confront Iran. The country’s troops are a complement to Russian airpower. Iran is a promising market for Russian exports. And, most of all, the two countries are neighbours who show every sign of working together to manage the Middle East, not of wanting to fight over it.
[9] The notion that Russia would be a good ally against China is even less realistic. Russia is far weaker than China, with a declining economy and population and a smaller army. Mr Putin has neither the power nor the inclination to pick a quarrel with Beijing. On the contrary, he values trade with China, fears its military might and has much in common with its leaders, at least in his tendency to bully his neighbours and reject Western lecturing about democracy and human rights. Even if it were wise for America to escalate confrontation with China— which it is not—Mr Putin would be no help at all.
ally ['ælaɪ]
n. 同盟国;伙伴;同盟者;助手 vt. 使联盟;使联合
vi. 联合;结盟
Another ally can do this but not that. 另一个盟国能这样、又不能那样做。
quarrel ['kwɒr(ə)l]
n. 吵架;反目;怨言;争吵的原因;方头凿 vi. 吵架;争论;挑剔
They have patched up their quarrel. 他们已经停止了争吵。
bully ['bʊlɪ]
n. 欺凌弱小者;土霸 vt. 欺负;威吓
adj. 第一流的;特好的 vi. 欺侮人
adv. 很;十分
int. 好;妙
If I had been there, I would not have let him bully you. 当时如果我要是在场,我就不会让他欺负你的。
[10] The gravest risk of Mr Trump miscalculating, however, is in Europe. Here Mr Putin’s wishlist falls into three classes: things he should not get until he behaves better, such as the lifting of Western sanctions; things he should not get in any circumstances, such as the recognition of his seizure of Ukrainian territory; and things that would undermine the rules-based global order, such as American connivance in weakening NATO.
sanction ['sæŋ(k)ʃ(ə)n]
n. 制裁,处罚;认可;支持 vt. 制裁,处罚;批准;鼓励
The church would not sanction his second marriage. 教会不会认可他的第二次婚姻。
connivance [kə'naɪv(ə)ns] n. 纵容;默许;假装不见
But Western involvement or connivance in these was also rarely absent.
但西方的卷入或者说默许在这些事件中也鲜有缺席。
长难句:
Here Mr Putin’s wish list falls into three classes: things he should not get until he behaves better, such as the lifting of Western sanctions; things he should not get in any circumstances, such as the recognition of his seizure of Ukrainian territory; and things that would undermine the rules-based global order, such as American connivance in weakening NATO.
句子主干:Mr Putin’s wish list falls into three classes
平行结构:三项 things 平行,因为 things 内部比较麻烦,各种逗号,所以平行的三项用分号隔开,用 and 并列,things...;things...;and things...
第一项:things he should not get until he behaves better, such as the lifting of Western sanctions 其中 he should not get until he behaves better 是定语从句修饰 things,只是定语从句省略了 that,such as 列 举了这样一种 things。
第二项:things he should not get in any circumstances, such as the recognition of his seizure of Ukrainian territory; he should not get in any circumstances 依然是定语从句省略了 that,修饰 things,such as 后 面为举出真实例子。
第三项:things that would undermine the rules-based global order, such as American connivance in weakening NATO. 这里 that would undermine the rules-based global order 定语从句 that 不能省略是因为 that 作定语从句的主语了不可以省略,定语从句修饰 things,such as 继续举一个该 things 的例子。 注释:here 就是在欧洲,Mr Putin’s wishlist falls into three classes 普京的愿望清单有三种,其一:things he should not get until he behaves better,表现好才能得到的,比如 lifting of 西方制裁,sanction 这个词 政治经济表达中经常会用,源于拉丁文,原意是使··神圣的意思,先发展为制裁,take sanction against~ 对···施行制裁~第二种呢,things he should not get in any circumstances,永远得不到的,比如对乌 克兰侵占这一事件得到认可。第三种呢,things that would undermine the rules-based global order,就是那 些捣蛋事件,会削弱全球秩序的,比如玩玩北约,但是是在美国默许的情况下~connivance 是 connive 的 名词形式,源自拉丁文,原意是闭眼的,后来演化为假装没看见,那可不就是纵容,默许的意思么~ 大意:在欧洲,普金想要的事情就三种:第一种就是他必须乖乖表现才可能获得的,比如解除西方制裁; 第二种是他永远得不到的,比如认可他侵占乌克兰这件事;第三种是会毁坏全球秩序的事儿,比如在美国 默许的情况下玩玩北约。
[11] Mr Putin would love it if Mr Trump gave him a freer hand in Russia’s “near abroad”, for example by scrapping America’s anti-missile defences in Europe and halting NATO enlargement with the membership of Montenegro, which is due this year. Mr Trump appears not to realise what gigantic concessions these would be. He gives mixed signals about the value of NATO, calling it “obsolete” last month but vowing to support it this week. Some of his advisers seem not to care if the EU falls apart; like Mr Putin, they embrace leaders such as Marine Le Pen who would like nothing more. Mr Bannon, while admitting that Russia is a kleptocracy, sees Mr Putin as part of a global revolt by nationalists and traditionalists against the liberal elite—and therefore a natural ally for Mr Trump.
enlargement [ɪn'lɑːdʒm(ə)nt; en-] n. 放大;放大的照片;增补物
An enlargement is often made from a small photograph. 大照片常由小照片放大而成。
concession [kən'seʃ(ə)n] 详细» n. 让步;特许(权);承认;退位
We can not make heavy concession to the matter. 我们在这个问题上不能过于让步。
obsolete ['ɒbsəliːt] n. 废词;陈腐的人 adj. 废弃的;老式的 vt. 淘汰;废弃
How could you "need" to run an OS that was obsolete twenty years ago? 那么究竟怎样才“需要”运行一个二十年前就很陈旧的 OS 呢?
kleptocracy [klep'tɒkrəsɪ] n. 盗贼统治
Democracy versus Kleptocracy: More than Meets the Eye 民主体制 对 盗贼政府:比你所见的要多 。
Played for a sucker by a silovik
[12] The quest for a grand bargain with Mr Putin is delusional. No matter how great a negotiator Mr Trump is, no good deal is to be had. Indeed, an overlooked risk is that Mr Trump, double crossed and thin-skinned, will end up presiding over a dangerous and destabilising falling-out with Mr Putin.
delusion [dɪ'l(j)uːʒ(ə)n]
n. 迷惑,欺骗;错觉;幻想
One was about forty: a period of mental vigour at which men seldom cherish thedelusion of being married for love by girls: that dream is reserved for the solace of ourdeclining years. 一个大概四十了,正是精力健壮的时期,男人在这时期很少会怀着女孩子们是由于爱情而嫁给他的妄想。那
种梦是留给我们到老年聊以自慰的。
negotiator [nɪ'gəʊʃɪeɪtə(r); nɪ'gəʊsɪeɪtə(r)]
n. 谈判者;磋商者;交涉者
The negotiator acted as liaison between labour and management.
谈判者充当劳资双方的联络人。
[13] Better than either a bargain or a falling-out would be to work at the small things to improve America’s relations with Russia. This might include arms control and stopping Russian and American forces accidentally coming to blows. Congressional Republicans and his more sensible advisers, such as his secretaries of state and defence, should strive to convince Mr Trump of this. The alternative would be very bad indeed.
congressional [kən'ɡreʃənəl] adj. 国会的;会议的;议会的
Seventeen congressmen were absent at the Congressional roll call. 议会点名时有 17 名议员缺席。
sensible ['sensɪb(ə)l]
n. 可感觉到的东西; 敏感的人;
adj. 明智的; 通情达理的; 合乎情理的; 意识到的,能感觉到的;
But not many have sensible ideas about the correct way to do that. 但对于怎样做才是正确,却没有多少人有明智的见解。
secretary ['sekrɪt(ə)rɪ] n. 秘书;书记;部长;大臣
His secretary got it down. 他的秘书把它记了下来。
来源:
Donald Trump seeks a grand bargain with Vladimir Putin. This is a terrible idea
[1] GEORGE W. BUSH looked into Vladimir Putin’s eyes and thought he saw his soul. He was wrong. Barack Obama attempted to “reset” relations with Russia, but by the end of his term in office Russia had annexed Crimea, stirred up conflict elsewhere in Ukraine and filled the power vacuum that Mr Obama had left in Syria. Donald Trump appears to want to go much further and forge an entirely new strategic alignment with Russia. Can he succeed, or will he be the third American president in a row to be outfoxed by Mr Putin?
[2] The details of Mr Trump’s realignment are still vague and changeable. That is partly because of disagreements in his inner circle. Even as his ambassador to the UN offered “clear and strong condemnation” of “Russia’s aggressive actions” in Ukraine, the president’s bromance with Mr Putin was still smouldering. When an interviewer on Fox News put it to Mr Trump this week that Mr Putin is “a killer”, he retorted: “There are a lot of killers. What, you think our country’s so innocent?”
[3] For an American president to suggest that his own country is as murderous as Russia is unprecedented, wrong and a gift to Moscow’s propagandists. And for Mr Trump to think that Mr Putin has much to offer America is a miscalculation not just of Russian power and interests, but also of the value of what America might have to give up in return.
The art of the deal meets the tsar of the steal
[4] Going by the chatter around Mr Trump (see page 16), the script for Russia looks something like this: America would team up with Mr Putin to destroy “radical Islamic terror”—and in particular, Islamic State (IS). At the same time Russia might agree to abandon its collaboration with Iran, an old enemy for America in the Middle East and a threat to its allies, including Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. In Europe Russia would stop fomenting conflict in Ukraine, agree not to harass NATO members on its doorstep and, possibly, enter nuclear-arms-control talks. In the longer term, closer ties with Russia could also help curb Chinese expansion. Stephen Bannon, Mr Trump’s most alarming adviser, said last year that he had “no doubt” that “we’re going to war in the South China Sea in five to ten years.” If so, America will need allies, and Russia is a nuclear power with a 4,200km (2,600-mile) border with China. What’s not to like?
[5] Pretty much everything. Russian hacking may have helped Mr Trump at the polls, but that does not mean he can trust Mr Putin. The Kremlin’s interests and America’s are worlds apart.
[6] In Syria, for example, Mr Putin makes a big noise about fighting IS terrorists, but he has made no real effort to do so. His price for working with America could be to secure a permanent Russian military presence in the Middle East by propping up Bashar al-Assad, whose regime was revealed this week to have hanged thousands of Syrians after two- or three-minute trials. None of this is good for Syria, regional stability or America.
[7] Even if Mr Putin and Mr Trump shared a common goal (they don’t) and Americans did not mind becoming complicit in Russian atrocities (they should), American and Russian forces cannot easily fight side by side. Their systems do not work together. To make them do so would require sharing military secrets that the Pentagon spends a fortune protecting. Besides, Russian aircraft do not add much to the coalition air power already attacking IS. Ground troops would, but Mr Putin is highly unlikely to deploy them.
[8] Likewise, Russia is not about to confront Iran. The country’s troops are a complement to Russian airpower. Iran is a promising market for Russian exports. And, most of all, the two countries are neighbours who show every sign of working together to manage the Middle East, not of wanting to fight over it.
[9] The notion that Russia would be a good ally against China is even less realistic. Russia is far weaker than China, with a declining economy and population and a smaller army. Mr Putin has neither the power nor the inclination to pick a quarrel with Beijing. On the contrary, he values trade with China, fears its military might and has much in common with its leaders, at least in his tendency to bully his neighbours and reject Western lecturing about democracy and human rights. Even if it were wise for America to escalate confrontation with China— which it is not—Mr Putin would be no help at all.
[10] The gravest risk of Mr Trump miscalculating, however, is in Europe. Here Mr Putin’s wishlist falls into three classes: things he should not get until he behaves better, such as the lifting of Western sanctions; things he should not get in any circumstances, such as the recognition of his seizure of Ukrainian territory; and things that would undermine the rules-based global order, such as American connivance in weakening NATO.
[11] Mr Putin would love it if Mr Trump gave him a freer hand in Russia’s “near abroad”, for example by scrapping America’s anti-missile defences in Europe and halting NATO enlargement with the membership of Montenegro, which is due this year. Mr Trump appears not to realise what gigantic concessions these would be. He gives mixed signals about the value of NATO, calling it “obsolete” last month but vowing to support it this week. Some of his advisers seem not to care if the EU falls apart; like Mr Putin, they embrace leaders such as Marine Le Pen who would like nothing more. Mr Bannon, while admitting that Russia is a kleptocracy, sees Mr Putin as part of a global revolt by nationalists and traditionalists against the liberal elite—and therefore a natural ally for Mr Trump.
Played for a sucker by a silovik
[12] The quest for a grand bargain with Mr Putin is delusional. No matter how great a negotiator Mr Trump is, no good deal is to be had. Indeed, an overlooked risk is that Mr Trump, double crossed and thin-skinned, will end up presiding over a dangerous and destabilising falling-out with Mr Putin.
[13] Better than either a bargain or a falling-out would be to work at the small things to improve America’s relations with Russia. This might include arms control and stopping Russian and American forces accidentally coming to blows. Congressional Republicans and his more sensible advisers, such as his secretaries of state and defence, should strive to convince Mr Trump of this. The alternative would be very bad indeed.